Release date: February 19, 2015  |  Next release date: February 25, 2015 Starting in the second half of 2014, crude oil and currency market movements reflected diverging monetary policy, economic growth, and inflation expectations for the United States compared to the rest of the world. Gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which are responsible for most of the projected growth in liquid fuels consumption, were repeatedly revised lower last year and contributed to the downward movement in crude oil prices. The United States, in contrast, showed robust economic and employment growth in 2014, which is forecast to continue through 2015. Given this scenario, the Federal Reserve could let interest rates rise as early as this year for the first time since the recession in 2008-09. In contrast, monetary authorities facing weaker home economies have recently acted to lower interest rates in an effort to...

Release date: February 11, 2015  |  Next release date: February 19, 2015 In the February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), EIA forecasts motor gasoline consumption in 2015 to increase by 80,000 barrels/day (bbl/d), or 0.9% (Figure 1). Forecast growth in highway travel, which is attributable to increases in population, employment, and disposable income, and retail gasoline prices substantially below those in 2014, more than offset improvements in the fuel economy of the vehicle fleet. All other things equal, lower gasoline prices increase gasoline demand. Although the impact of gasoline price changes on demand grows over time as fuel prices affect consumers' vehicle purchase decisions and where they choose to live, which affects commuting distances, the short-term impact of prices on gasoline demand is quite modest. EIA's STEO uses a short-term price elasticity of -0.033—for every 10% decrease in the price of gasoline there is a corresponding short-term 0.33% increase in gasoline consumption. With average gasoline prices...

Release date: February 25, 2015  |  Next release date: March 4, 2015 On February 18, an explosion and fire occurred at the ExxonMobil refinery in Torrance, California. The Torrance refinery, the third-largest refinery in southern California, has about 20% of the region's fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) capacity and is an important source of gasoline and distillate supply. Based on publicly available information, it can be estimated that Torrance produces about 117,000 barrels per day (bbl/d) of gasoline (about 15-20% of southern California's supply) and about 50,000 bbl/d of distillate and jet fuel (about 10% of southern California supply). Unplanned refinery outages can have noticeable impacts on liquid fuel markets, disrupting supplies of gasoline and distillate, particularly in regions that are tightly balanced, such as Petroleum Administration for Defense District (PADD) 5 (West Coast). While refineries make arrangements for alternative sources of supply during periods of planned maintenance to ensure that supply obligations are met, it...

Release date: March 11, 2015  |  Next release date: March 18, 2015 In recent weeks, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil for near-term delivery declined relative to the price for longer-dated deliveries, deepening the contango in the Nymex WTI futures market. At the same time, the contango in the ICE Brent futures market lessened as the price of near-term Brent crude oil prices rose (Figure 1). In January, global crude oil production continued to exceed demand, resulting in rising inventories and downward pressure on near-term prices for both WTI and Brent. Since then, changes in regional market dynamics, including planned and unplanned refinery maintenance in the United States and increased refinery utilization in Europe, have caused changes in the structure of futures price curves for WTI and Brent and in the spread between the spot prices of the two benchmark crudes. U.S. commercial crude inventories are at a near record level in...

Release date: March 4, 2015  |  Next release date: March 11, 2015 EIA’s December Petroleum Supply Monthly data show that exports of noncrude petroleum products from the United States averaged 3.8 million barrels per day (bbl/d) in 2014, an increase of 347,000 bbl/d from 2013, and a new record high. Increased exports of motor gasoline and hydrocarbon gas liquids (HGL), including propane and butane, were the main contributors to the trend, while exports of distillate decreased. Record-high U.S. refinery runs, which averaged 16.1 million bbl/d in 2014, and increased global demand for petroleum products allowed U.S. petroleum product exports to increase for the 13th consecutive year. U.S. exports are mostly sent to nearby markets in Central America and South America, which grew year-over-year by 172,000 bbl/d (15%), followed by exports to Canada and Mexico, which rose 80,000 bbl/d (8%). The only decline in exports was to the Middle East, which went from 55,000 bbl/d in...

Release date: March 18, 2015  |  Next release date: March 25, 2015 The Northeast is experiencing a colder-than-normal winter. Population-weighted temperatures from October through February were 11% colder than the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projected at the start of the heating season, 10% colder than the 10-year average, and 1% colder than last winter. The cold weather increased demand for both distillate fuel and natural gas for residential and commercial space heating. As natural gas demand for space heating increased, the natural gas supply infrastructure reached its limits and could not provide enough natural gas to meet overall demand, which also includes commercial, industrial and power generation uses. One result was the curtailment of natural gas supplies to interruptible customers, who are mostly industrial users and electric generators, who responded to curtailments by increasing their own use of distillate fuel. Some customers also switched voluntarily from natural gas to distillate as natural gas...

Release date: April 1, 2015  |  Next release date: April 8, 2015 This week, EIA began to provide monthly data on rail movements of crude oil, which have significantly increased over the past five years. The new data on crude-by-rail (CBR) movements are integrated with EIA’s existing monthly petroleum supply statistics, which already include crude oil movements by pipeline, tanker, and barge. The new monthly time series of crude oil rail movements going back to January 2010 includes shipments to and from Canada, and dramatically reduces the absolute level of unaccounted-for volumes shown as “adjustments” in EIA’s monthly balances for each region. Previous editions of This Week in Petroleum addressed receipts of crude oil to East Coast (PADD 1) and West Coast (PADD 5) refineries via rail using the proxy unaccounted-for supply, the difference between crude oil supplied for refinery runs and crude oil from field production, imports, stock changes, and movements from other PADDs...

Release date: March 25, 2015  |  Next release date: April 1, 2015 While the vernal equinox on March 20th marks the first official day of spring, the transition from winter-grade gasoline to spring-grade gasoline, an intermediate step in the shift to summer-grade gasoline, began much earlier. The transition occurs along the gasoline supply chain, from refineries to retail outlets, and affects spot, wholesale and retail gasoline prices because the cost to manufacture spring and summer-grade gasoline is higher than the cost to manufacture gasoline used in the winter. Federal and state environmental regulations specify the properties of finished gasoline that can be sold at retail stations across the United States. Many specifications, like octane rating, remain constant from season to season. However, Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP), a measure of how easily petroleum liquids evaporate, changes to accommodate seasonal temperature variations that affect both the performance of gasoline in an internal combustion engine and emissions. In...

Release date: April 8, 2015  |  Next release date: April 15, 2015 EIA this week projected that U.S. average regular gasoline retail prices will average $2.45/gallon (gal) during the April-through-September 2015 period (summer 2015), down from the $3.59/gal average during summer 2014. The significant price decline reflects a large drop in Brent crude oil prices. As daily and weekly national average prices can differ significantly from monthly and seasonal averages, and because there are also significant regional differences in gasoline prices, prices in some areas could exceed the national average by $0.40/gal or more. EIA's projections appeared in the April 2015 Short-Term Energy Outlook . Brent crude oil prices fell sharply in late 2014 and early 2015 as global supply exceeded demand, contributing to strong increases in oil inventories . EIA projects the Brent crude oil spot price to average $58/barrel (bbl) ($1.39/gal), down from the summer 2014 average of $106/bbl ($2.52/gal). The projected $1.13/gal...

Release date: April 15, 2015  |  Next release date: April 22, 2015 According to annual reports for 75 global oil and natural gas companies, oil proved reserve additions totaled 10.4 billion barrels in 2014, the lowest since 2010 (Figure 1). Reported finding and lifting costs for these companies continued to rise. Benchmark prices averaged across the first trading day of the 12 months of 2014, which are used in characterizing existing economic conditions in the oil market for purposes of reporting proved reserves, were only slightly below their 2013 level despite the sharp decline in oil prices towards the end of last year. For 2015, the prices used for assessing proved reserves are forecast to be much lower. Oil and natural gas companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges are required to report their proved reserves every year to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Proved reserves are defined as estimated quantities of oil and...